Per-cycle and cumulative live-birth rates based on SART national registry data, modulated by age and diagnosis. For a fully individualized prediction, the Aberdeen IVFpredict tool (linked below) is the gold standard.
What this means in plain language: if you do 3 cycles, you have about a 81% chance of taking home a baby. That also means about a 19% chance of not, after that many cycles.
The Aberdeen IVFpredict tool (Prof David McLernon's group, BMJ 2016) takes AMH, BMI, and detailed cycle history, and is the published gold standard for cumulative IVF prediction.
IVFpredict (Univ. of Aberdeen) →This is a population-level prediction. Your clinic's specific success rates can be 10–20 percentage points higher or lower than national averages depending on protocols, lab quality, and patient mix. Your individual result depends on factors we don't capture: AMH, BMI, partner factors, embryo quality, uterine factors, and genetic findings.
"Cumulative live birth rate" means at least one live birth across all the cycles in question — not one per cycle. The biggest single predictor is age at egg retrieval; once eggs are retrieved and frozen, the rate is locked at the age they were frozen.
Sources: SART CSR national outcomes (sartcorsonline.com); McLernon et al. 2016 BMJ, "Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of IVF" — code at https://w3.abdn.ac.uk/ivfpredict/.