Months until likely pregnancy, from age-stratified per-cycle fecundability data (Dunson & Baird, 2002–2004), adjusted for cycle regularity and any known fertility condition.
| Within 1 month | 20% |
| Within 3 months | 49% |
| Within 6 months | 74% |
| Within 12 months | 93% |
What this means. If 100 couples like you tried for six months, about 74 would be pregnant by then. By twelve months it would be about 93. The other 7 are not "infertile" — many will conceive in months 13–24, but at this point a workup is appropriate.
Re-check at 12 months of trying.
Under 35, ASRM recommends evaluation after 12 months of trying. You have about 12 more months on that clock.
This is a population-level estimate — it tells you what happens to 100 couples roughly like you, not what will happen to you specifically. Per-cycle pregnancy probabilities by age come from Dunson, Baird & Wilcox's analyses of European fecundability data (Hum Reprod 2002 and Fertil Steril 2004), with cycle-regularity and condition multipliers calibrated against ESHRE 2017 consensus and ASRM patient guidance.
What this model doesn't capture: AMH, antral follicle count, semen analysis, BMI extremes, thyroid status, prior pregnancies, frequency and timing of intercourse, lubricant use, and partner age. Sperm quality alone explains roughly a third of all variance in time-to-pregnancy — if you've been trying 6+ months without a recent semen analysis, that's the highest-yield next step.
We model cumulative pregnancy as 1 − (1 − p)^N over N cycles, which assumes constant per-cycle fecundability. In reality, the most fertile couples conceive first, so the probability for those still trying drifts down month over month — we approximate this with a small selection-effect penalty after 6 months of trying.
Sources: Dunson DB, Baird DD, Wilcox AJ. Increased infertility with age in men and women. Obstet Gynecol 2004; 103:51–6. Dunson et al., Changes with age in the level and duration of fertility in the menstrual cycle. Hum Reprod 2002; 17:1399–1403. ASRM Practice Committee, Definitions of infertility and recurrent pregnancy loss. Fertil Steril 2020; 113:533–5.