Birth weight prediction

How big will they be?

Birth weight is mostly genetics, gestational age, and how the pregnancy went — not magic. Here's an honest range based on the factors that actually move the number.

Most likely birth weight
7 lb 8 oz
Realistic range: 6 lb 10 oz to 8 lb 7 oz (about ±1 lb either side).
Where they fall in the distribution
AVG 7.5 LB
7 lb 8 oz
5 lb
6 lb
7 lb
8 lb
9 lb
10 lb
What's moving the number
Baseline (sex, average pregnancy)
7 lb 8 oz
Mom's pre-pregnancy BMI (24.0)
+0.08 lb
Weight gain vs expected 30 lb
-0.05 lb
Delivery at week 40
0.00 lb
First pregnancy
0.00 lb
How accurate is this, honestly?
Accuracy±1 lb

Birth weight prediction is, honestly, more art than science. We're using a regression that captures the biggest factors — gestational age, parental size, parity, sex — but the ±1 lb range exists because we genuinely cannot do better from the inputs you can give us in a form.

Tall parents, gestational diabetes, placental insufficiency, fetal growth restriction, and a dozen other things your OB tracks can shift the actual number meaningfully. Treat the prediction as a midpoint with wide uncertainty, not a target.

Read the full methodology →
Take it home
Make it official — birth-stats keepsake

Their name, birth date, time, weight, and length on cream matte paper. Hangs in the nursery, ages well.

Formula
Predicted = base + maternal pre-pregnancy weight + GA adjustment + parity + sex offset

Birth weight is moderately heritable — roughly 30–40% genetic, 60–70% intrauterine environment. We blend the strongest population-level predictors: maternal pre-pregnancy weight, gestational age at delivery, parity (first vs. subsequent), and fetal sex.

Reported error around any single prediction is ±400–500 g (~1 lb) — the population variance is real and you should treat any prediction as a center-of-gravity estimate, not a fixed number.

Limitations
  • Doesn't model gestational diabetes, twin pregnancy, or growth restriction.
  • Maternal height, smoking status, and ethnicity influence birth weight but aren't captured here.
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